How People Make Bad Decisions
The pseudocertainty effect.
- We take less risks if we expect a positive outcome.
- We take WAY more risks if we think we have to avoid a negative outcome.
If a business is headed toward the dumps (or even experiences a hint of failure), and the managers are running around like MAAADDDDD, they'll take more risks to try to 'save' the business.
"SAVE!"
That could mean:
- Launching random new products.
- Redoing X, which already took months/years.
- Firing people randomly.
- Throwing everything into one basket.
It's like a gambler betting conservatively when he wins something, but then BAM SON: when he starts losing, he bets larger and larger to avoid loss.
When you're down and out and see yourself making larger risks, SLAP YOSELF -- and tell yourself:
- "HEY! I'm experiencing a psychological condition that makes me want to take more risks because I'm afraid of loss; I should stop right here and make decisions more rationally."
WIN.
Stop. Slap. Think. Decide.
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Posted on January 19