How to Make Good Decisions

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  1. You travel to Las Vegas in a busted Pinto.
  2. You get there safely.

Did you make a good decision?

NO WAY BILLY B!

Yes, you got to your destination; but, your odds of getting to Vegas: tremendously against you.

For instance, out of ten tries, you'd probably:

  • Get there safely 2 times.
  • Fail 8 times.

Multiply bad decisions over time, and what happens?

  1. Yes, you'll generate a few successes.
  2. But, you'll net a horrifically number of horrible results -- rendering your successes moot.

Entrepreneurs/companies/peeps can mistake a few successes for good decisions; in reality, those flawed decisions will ultimately catch up to them.

Instead, make good decisions that will statistically pull you ahead in the long-run.

Why Immediate Results Don't Matter

You're playing a game of Blackjack.

  1. You have a 20.
  2. The dealer shows 19.
  3. Do you raise?

Let's say you you stay put with your 20.

  1. The dealer hits.
  2. He gets a 2.

Uh-oh.

He just rocked your money, where you go home crying to mama.

Did you really make a good decision?

Of course, you did. You'd win 90% of the time if you were in the same situation.

Now, let's say you had 19.

The dealer had the same 19.

  1. He hits.
  2. He gets a 2.

Did the dealer make a good decision?

NO WAY CHARLIE CEEBEE!

The dealer would lose almost every single time if he had committed that same move.

Immediate results don't matter; what decisions you make over time do.

Don't Mistake Good Results for Good Decisions

If some self-proclaimed business guru tells you to do X because he succeeded doing X -- that might just mean he used a severely busted-up Pinto to get his destination.

  • That is, dude got lucky using a horrifically horrible decision -- that statistically, would've destroyed his journey.

Just because you know/heard some super-successful Schmo who works tirelessly until 3 a.m, it doesn't mean he's making a good decision.

(Hint: He's succeeding despite the faulty decision.)

You can make ridiculously bad decisions, and still win -- but relying on those bad decisions over time will destroy you in the long-run, or at least seriously stunt your growth.

Good decisions every tick. Win.

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Posted on April 28

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